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Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 23:00

Guarani Campinas

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ypiranga-RS

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.6%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-18.4%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.5%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-17.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 57.8% 1.73 +0.2%

Draw 21.1% 29.9% 3.35 -17.6%

Away win 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

Over 2.5 60.1% 54.1% 1.85 +11.2%

Over 3.5 37.6% 31.3% 3.20 +20.3%

BTTS 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 55.6% 1.80 +13.4%

Away O1.5 24.5% 29.0% 3.45 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -33.5%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani Campinas2.3

Ypiranga-RS0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI CAMPINAS · PPG 2.12

YPIRANGA-RS · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guarani Campinas (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +0.2%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -17.6%

Ypiranga-RS (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani Campinas face Ypiranga-RS in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani Campinas a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Ypiranga-RS 21%, so Guarani Campinas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Guarani Campinas and 0.9 for Ypiranga-RS (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani Campinas are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.86 for Ypiranga-RS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.3%.

Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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