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Ferroviária vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 23:00

Ferroviária

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paysandu

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-19.5%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.8%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.6%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.9%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 23.7% 25.3% 3.95 -3.8%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 37.9% 43.5% 2.30 -12.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 32.3% 3.10 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviária1.3

Paysandu0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIÁRIA · PPG 1.75

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviária (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +0.6%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Paysandu (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviária face Paysandu in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviária a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Paysandu 24%, so Ferroviária are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ferroviária and 0.9 for Paysandu (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviária are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.29 for Paysandu. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Ferroviária vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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