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Caxias vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Caxias

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Figueirense

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-18.8%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-17.7%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

Draw 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away win 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Over 2.5 37.0% 43.5% 2.30 -14.9%

Over 3.5 19.0% 23.1% 4.33 -10.6%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 37.9% 43.5% 2.30 -12.8%

Away O1.5 16.8% 28.2% 3.55 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.3%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caxias1.3

Figueirense0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CAXIAS · PPG 1.88

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Caxias (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.9%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Figueirense (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caxias face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caxias a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Figueirense 22%, so Caxias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Caxias and 0.6 for Figueirense (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caxias are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.50 for Figueirense.

Caxias vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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