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Amazonas vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:00

Amazonas

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo PB

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.0%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.1%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 39.2% 2.55 +11.9%

Draw 25.3% 33.3% 3.00 -14.5%

Away win 30.9% 37.7% 2.65 -18.1%

Over 2.5 53.6% 43.5% 2.30 +23.3%

Over 3.5 31.8% 23.1% 4.33 +37.7%

BTTS 54.5% 52.4% 1.91 +4.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 36.4% 2.75 +24.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amazonas1.5

Botafogo PB1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.62

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Amazonas (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +11.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.5%

Botafogo PB (A) 30.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amazonas face Botafogo PB in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amazonas a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Botafogo PB 31%, so Amazonas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Amazonas and 1.2 for Botafogo PB (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amazonas are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.25 for Botafogo PB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.7%.

Amazonas vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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