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Confiança vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

Confiança

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maringá

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.8%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.2%1-112.7%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 40.8% 2.45 -4.0%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 34.1% 37.0% 2.70 -7.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Over 3.5 29.3% 27.8% 3.60 +3.3%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 37.9% 41.7% 2.40 -9.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Confiança1.3

Maringá1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CONFIANÇA · PPG 1.38

MARINGÁ · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Confiança (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -4.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Maringá (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Confiança face Maringá in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Confiança a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Maringá 34%, so Confiança are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Confiança and 1.2 for Maringá (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Confiança are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Maringá. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +3.9%.

Confiança vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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