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Barra vs AO Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

Barra

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

AO Itabaiana

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-18.9%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.5%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Draw 27.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.5%

Away win 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.8%

Over 2.5 46.1% 37.7% 2.65 +22.2%

Over 3.5 28.0% 22.2% 4.50 +15.6%

BTTS 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Home O1.5 42.7% 39.2% 2.55 +8.9%

Away O1.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra1.4

AO Itabaiana0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA · PPG 1.00

AO ITABAIANA · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barra (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -0.6%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.5%

AO Itabaiana (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra face AO Itabaiana in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra a 49% chance, the draw 27% and AO Itabaiana 24%, so Barra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Barra and 0.8 for AO Itabaiana (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.12 for AO Itabaiana. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.2%.

Barra vs AO Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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