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Floresta vs Anápolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Floresta

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Anápolis

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.0%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-112.0%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 47.6% 2.10 +4.2%

Draw 26.3% 33.9% 2.95 -13.5%

Away win 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 41.7% 2.40 +19.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 51.8% 51.3% 1.95 +1.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 40.8% 2.45 +10.5%

Away O1.5 21.1% 28.6% 3.50 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.8%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floresta1.5

Anápolis0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORESTA · PPG 1.50

ANÁPOLIS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Floresta (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.5%

Anápolis (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floresta face Anápolis in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floresta a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Anápolis 24%, so Floresta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Floresta and 0.8 for Anápolis (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floresta are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Anápolis. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%.

Floresta vs Anápolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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