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Volta Redonda vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:00

Volta Redonda

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ituano

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-112.0%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.3%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-17.5%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 45.5% 2.20 -3.6%

Draw 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 28.5% 31.3% 3.20 -5.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Over 3.5 24.5% 23.8% 4.20 +1.7%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 30.2% 40.8% 2.45 -26.0%

Away O1.5 26.2% 32.3% 3.10 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Volta Redonda1.1

Ituano0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VOLTA REDONDA · PPG 1.75

ITUANO · PPG 0.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Volta Redonda (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Ituano (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Volta Redonda face Ituano in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Volta Redonda a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Ituano 28%, so Volta Redonda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Volta Redonda and 0.9 for Ituano (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Volta Redonda are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.62 for Ituano. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%.

Volta Redonda vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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