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Comerciantes vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:30

Comerciantes

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bentín Tacna Heroica

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-110.2%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-112.2%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-17.3%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.9%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 57.8% 1.73 -12.6%

Draw 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Away win 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Over 2.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

Over 3.5 21.3% 24.4% 4.10 -7.6%

BTTS 46.2% 49.8% 2.01 -7.1%

Home O1.5 33.4% 48.5% 2.06 -31.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes1.2

Bentín Tacna Heroica0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES · PPG 2.60

BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -12.6%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

Bentín Tacna Heroica (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes face Bentín Tacna Heroica in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Bentín Tacna Heroica 22%, so Comerciantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Comerciantes and 0.6 for Bentín Tacna Heroica (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.40 for Bentín Tacna Heroica. This match finished 2-2.

Comerciantes vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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