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U. San Martin vs Deportiva Agropecuaria Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:00

U. San Martin

PPG 1.39 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportiva Agropecuaria

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-17.7%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.7%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.0%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. San Martin1.5

Deportiva Agropecuaria0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

U. SAN MARTIN · PPG 1.39

DEPORTIVA AGROPECUARIA · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

U. San Martin (H) 51.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportiva Agropecuaria (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

U. San Martin face Deportiva Agropecuaria in Peru - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. San Martin a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Deportiva Agropecuaria 22%, so U. San Martin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for U. San Martin and 0.7 for Deportiva Agropecuaria (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. San Martin are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.10 for Deportiva Agropecuaria.

U. San Martin vs Deportiva Agropecuaria Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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