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SC Braga vs GIL Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:30

SC Braga

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

GIL Vicente

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.5%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.3%1-111.9%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.5%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 59.9% 1.67 -17.3%

Draw 24.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.7%

Away win 25.6% 20.4% 4.90 +15.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 51.3% 1.95 +4.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 29.0% 3.45 +9.7%

BTTS 54.5% 52.6% 1.90 +3.5%

Home O1.5 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Away O1.5 32.9% 25.6% 3.90 +28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Braga1.6

GIL Vicente1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SC BRAGA · PPG 1.67

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SC Braga (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -17.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.7%

GIL Vicente (A) 25.6%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Braga face GIL Vicente in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Braga a 50% chance, the draw 25% and GIL Vicente 26%, so SC Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SC Braga and 1.1 for GIL Vicente (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Braga are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.29 for GIL Vicente. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.3%.

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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