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Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Arouca

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moreirense

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+23.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.7%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.3%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.4%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 48.1% 2.08 +1.3%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 47.6% 2.10 +23.9%

Over 3.5 35.2% 26.0% 3.85 +35.5%

BTTS 56.2% 54.1% 1.85 +4.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Away O1.5 34.9% 31.3% 3.20 +11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.2%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arouca1.7

Moreirense1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AROUCA · PPG 1.48

MOREIRENSE · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arouca (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +1.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Moreirense (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arouca face Moreirense in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arouca a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Moreirense 27%, so Arouca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Arouca and 1.2 for Moreirense (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arouca are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.14 for Moreirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.5%.

Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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