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Alverca vs Estrela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:30

Alverca

PPG 1.52 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estrela

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.5%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.3%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-18.9%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.3%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

Draw 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

Away win 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 47.6% 2.10 +12.8%

Over 3.5 31.8% 26.0% 3.85 +22.4%

BTTS 54.5% 54.6% 1.83 -0.3%

Home O1.5 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alverca1.4

Estrela1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVERCA · PPG 1.52

ESTRELA · PPG 0.99

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alverca (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -1.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.9%

Estrela (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alverca face Estrela in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alverca a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Estrela 29%, so Alverca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alverca and 1.2 for Estrela (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alverca are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 0.99 for Estrela. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Alverca vs Estrela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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