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Sportivo Belgrano vs Defensores de Belgrano VR Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 19:00

Sportivo Belgrano

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensores de Belgrano VR

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-16.6%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.2%1-110.5%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-18.4%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-14.4%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Belgrano1.6

Defensores de Belgrano VR0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO BELGRANO · PPG 1.70

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO VR · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Belgrano (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Defensores de Belgrano VR (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Belgrano face Defensores de Belgrano VR in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Belgrano a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Defensores de Belgrano VR 22%, so Sportivo Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sportivo Belgrano and 0.6 for Defensores de Belgrano VR (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Belgrano are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.80 for Defensores de Belgrano VR.

Sportivo Belgrano vs Defensores de Belgrano VR Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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