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Santamarina vs Fundacion Amigos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:30

Santamarina

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fundacion Amigos

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.7%0-117.3%0-26.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.3%1-112.5%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.9%2-14.5%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-11.1%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% — — —

Draw 34.9% — — —

Away win 33.8% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.6%

D 35% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.7%

#2 0–1 17.3%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 1–1 12.5%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santamarina0.7

Fundacion Amigos0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTAMARINA · PPG 1.00

FUNDACION AMIGOS · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 1.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santamarina (H) 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fundacion Amigos (A) 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santamarina face Fundacion Amigos in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santamarina a 31% chance, the draw 35% and Fundacion Amigos 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Santamarina and 0.8 for Fundacion Amigos (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santamarina are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Fundacion Amigos.

Santamarina vs Fundacion Amigos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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