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FCSB vs FC Botosani Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:30

FCSB

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Botosani

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.1%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-110.8%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 65.8% 1.52 -18.7%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 22.1% 17.9% 5.60 +14.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.8%

BTTS 50.6% 59.9% 1.67 -15.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Away O1.5 19.9% 28.6% 3.50 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FCSB1.8

FC Botosani0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FCSB · PPG 1.79

FC BOTOSANI · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FCSB (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -18.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

FC Botosani (A) 22.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FCSB face FC Botosani in Romania - Liga I on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FCSB a 54% chance, the draw 24% and FC Botosani 22%, so FCSB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FCSB and 0.8 for FC Botosani (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FCSB are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.91 for FC Botosani.

FCSB vs FC Botosani Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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