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Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:30

Oţelul

PPG 1.76 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universitatea Craiova

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.4%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.5%1-111.0%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.4%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 26.0% 3.85 +86.7%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 26.9% 53.5% 1.87 -29.8%

Over 2.5 54.3% 51.3% 1.95 +5.9%

Over 3.5 33.3% 29.9% 3.35 +11.6%

BTTS 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 30.8% 3.25 +59.9%

Away O1.5 36.9% 51.3% 1.95 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oţelul1.7

Universitatea Craiova1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OŢELUL · PPG 1.76

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA · PPG 1.30

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oţelul (H) 48.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +86.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

Universitatea Craiova (A) 26.9%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oţelul face Universitatea Craiova in Romania - Liga I on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oţelul a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Universitatea Craiova 27%, so Oţelul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oţelul and 1.3 for Universitatea Craiova (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oţelul are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.30 for Universitatea Craiova. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +106.0%.

Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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