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Universitatea Cluj vs Uta Arad Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:30

Universitatea Cluj

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uta Arad

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a clear edge.

+20.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.2%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.4%1-19.8%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.6%3-15.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-14.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 50.5% 1.98 +20.0%

Draw 23.4% 30.8% 3.25 -14.4%

Away win 16.0% 27.8% 3.60 -25.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 29.6% 28.2% 3.55 +3.0%

BTTS 47.7% 56.5% 1.77 -15.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 47.6% 2.10 +14.7%

Away O1.5 17.2% 31.3% 3.20 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 61% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitatea Cluj1.9

Uta Arad0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITATEA CLUJ · PPG 2.14

UTA ARAD · PPG 0.99

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitatea Cluj (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +20.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.4%

Uta Arad (A) 16.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitatea Cluj face Uta Arad in Romania - Liga I on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitatea Cluj a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Uta Arad 16%, so Universitatea Cluj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Universitatea Cluj and 0.7 for Uta Arad (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitatea Cluj are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.99 for Uta Arad. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.6%.

Universitatea Cluj vs Uta Arad Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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