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Burgan vs Shamiya Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 17:15

Burgan

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shamiya

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.7%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.2%1-111.3%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 25.9% — — —

Over 2.5 57.7% — — —

Over 3.5 34.4% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 73%

ROI 8.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burgan1.7

Shamiya1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BURGAN · PPG 0.75

SHAMIYA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Burgan (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shamiya (A) 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Burgan face Shamiya in Kuwait - Division 1 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burgan a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Shamiya 26%, so Burgan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Burgan and 1.2 for Shamiya (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burgan are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Shamiya.

Burgan vs Shamiya Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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