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Al Jazira vs Yarmouk Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 17:15

Al Jazira

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yarmouk

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.13 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.1%0-28.2%0-36.3%0-4+6.2%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.6%1-37.4%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.1%2-14.9%2-25.6%2-34.3%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 55.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 31.5% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 73%

ROI 8.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.3%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jazira1.2

Yarmouk2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JAZIRA · PPG 1.44

YARMOUK · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.13 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Jazira (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yarmouk (A) 55.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jazira face Yarmouk in Kuwait - Division 1 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jazira a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Yarmouk 55%, so Yarmouk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Jazira and 2.3 for Yarmouk (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jazira are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.44 for Yarmouk.

Al Jazira vs Yarmouk Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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