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Al Sulaibikhat vs Sporty Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 17:25

Al Sulaibikhat

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporty

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-13.4%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.3%1-17.7%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-18.6%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-16.5%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-16.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.2% 87.7% 1.14 -25.7%

Draw 20.1% 15.4% 6.50 +18.4%

Away win 14.7% 7.7% 13.00 +54.7%

Over 2.5 53.7% 62.5% 1.60 -14.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 42.6% 2.35 -25.3%

BTTS 47.7% 36.9% 2.71 +29.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 80.0% 1.25 -21.3%

Away O1.5 16.7% 9.5% 10.50 +45.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 65% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.0%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Sulaibikhat2.2

Sporty0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SULAIBIKHAT · PPG 2.00

SPORTY · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Sulaibikhat (H) 65.2%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -25.7%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +18.4%

Sporty (A) 14.7%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +54.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Sulaibikhat face Sporty in Kuwait - Division 1 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Sulaibikhat a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Sporty 15%, so Al Sulaibikhat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al Sulaibikhat and 0.6 for Sporty (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Sulaibikhat are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Sporty. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +60.1%.

Al Sulaibikhat vs Sporty Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kuwait - Division 1 Predictions