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Yarmouk vs Burgan Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 16:00

Yarmouk

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Burgan

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.1%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.7%1-111.7%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 71.4% 1.40 -28.2%

Draw 24.6% 26.3% 3.80 -3.9%

Away win 24.0% 13.3% 7.50 +48.0%

Over 2.5 51.3% 54.1% 1.85 -5.1%

Over 3.5 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

BTTS 53.1% 47.6% 2.10 +11.5%

Home O1.5 47.2% 61.7% 1.62 -23.5%

Away O1.5 24.8% 17.1% 5.85 +27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yarmouk1.6

Burgan0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YARMOUK · PPG 1.57

BURGAN · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yarmouk (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -28.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.9%

Burgan (A) 24.0%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +48.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yarmouk face Burgan in Kuwait - Division 1 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yarmouk a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Burgan 24%, so Yarmouk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yarmouk and 0.9 for Burgan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yarmouk are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.11 for Burgan. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +66.5%.

Yarmouk vs Burgan Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kuwait - Division 1 Predictions