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Shamiya vs Sporty Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:25

Shamiya

PPG 0.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporty

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.7%0-27.5%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.3%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 43.2% — — —

Over 2.5 54.8% — — —

Over 3.5 32.6% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.7% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 72%

ROI 8.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamiya1.2

Sporty1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMIYA · PPG 0.44

SPORTY · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shamiya (H) 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sporty (A) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamiya face Sporty in Kuwait - Division 1 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamiya a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Sporty 43%, so Sporty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shamiya and 1.5 for Sporty (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamiya are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 0.33 for Sporty.

Shamiya vs Sporty Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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