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Varhaug vs Stabæk II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Varhaug

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stabæk II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.8%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.4%1-16.9%1-25.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.4%2-18.5%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.4%3-16.9%3-25.4%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-17.5%4+-25.9%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 68.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 67.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob67.3%

H 51% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varhaug2.4

Stabæk II1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VARHAUG · PPG 0.75

STABÆK II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Varhaug (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Stabæk II (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Varhaug face Stabæk II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varhaug a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Stabæk II 28%, so Varhaug are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Varhaug and 1.6 for Stabæk II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varhaug are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Stabæk II.

Varhaug vs Stabæk II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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