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Mohammedan vs Police Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 09:30

Mohammedan

PPG 1.84 · HOME

UPCOMING

Police

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.19, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-112.9%0-27.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.6%2-16.8%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.9%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 36.1% — — —

Over 2.5 47.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.2% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mohammedan1.0

Police1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 1.84

POLICE · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.19, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mohammedan (H) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Police (A) 36.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mohammedan face Police in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mohammedan a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Police 36%, so Police are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mohammedan and 1.2 for Police (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mohammedan are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.90 for Police.

Mohammedan vs Police Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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