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Police vs Rainbow Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 09:30

Police

PPG 1.99 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Rainbow

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.7%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.3%1-18.5%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.4%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-17.3%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 20.5% 19.0% 5.25 +4.6%

Over 2.5 61.1% 60.6% 1.65 +0.8%

Over 3.5 38.2% 35.7% 2.80 +7.0%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Away O1.5 24.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1✓ 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Police2.3

Rainbow0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POLICE · PPG 1.99

RAINBOW · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Police (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

Rainbow (A) 20.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Police face Rainbow in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Police a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Rainbow 21%, so Police are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Police and 0.9 for Rainbow (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Police are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 0.93 for Rainbow. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Police vs Rainbow Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Calcutta Premier Division Predictions