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Carabobo FC vs Metropolitanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:00

Carabobo FC

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Metropolitanos FC

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.3%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.7%1-112.6%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.5%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.8%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 59.5% 1.68 -18.5%

Draw 27.3% 29.0% 3.45 -3.5%

Away win 24.2% 21.7% 4.60 +6.8%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 3.5 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

BTTS 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

Home O1.5 37.9% 54.1% 1.85 -29.9%

Away O1.5 21.1% 25.3% 3.95 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.9%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo FC1.4

Metropolitanos FC0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO FC · PPG 2.17

METROPOLITANOS FC · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo FC (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -18.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.5%

Metropolitanos FC (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo FC face Metropolitanos FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo FC a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Metropolitanos FC 24%, so Carabobo FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Carabobo FC and 0.8 for Metropolitanos FC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo FC are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.80 for Metropolitanos FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.2%.

Carabobo FC vs Metropolitanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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