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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Monagas SC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:00

Deportivo Tachira FC

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Monagas SC

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-14.6%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-19.2%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.4%3-16.2%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-14.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 64.5% 1.55 -0.9%

Draw 21.4% 26.7% 3.75 -11.8%

Away win 14.7% 19.0% 5.25 -13.7%

Over 2.5 53.7% 56.5% 1.77 -5.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 33.9% 2.95 -6.2%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Away O1.5 17.2% 27.4% 3.65 -22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 3–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Tachira FC2.0

Monagas SC0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO TACHIRA FC · PPG 2.09

MONAGAS SC · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Tachira FC (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -0.9%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.8%

Monagas SC (A) 14.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Tachira FC face Monagas SC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Tachira FC a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Monagas SC 15%, so Deportivo Tachira FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportivo Tachira FC and 0.7 for Monagas SC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Tachira FC are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.00 for Monagas SC.

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Monagas SC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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