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Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:30

Deportivo La Guaira

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zamora FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-111.0%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.2%2-16.2%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-12.2%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 61.0% 1.64 -27.4%

Draw 32.5% 29.4% 3.40 +10.5%

Away win 23.2% 19.6% 5.10 +11.0%

Over 2.5 34.2% 46.5% 2.15 -26.5%

Over 3.5 16.5% 25.6% 3.90 -21.4%

BTTS 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 52.6% 1.90 -42.6%

Away O1.5 16.7% 23.1% 4.33 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo La Guaira1.1

Zamora FC0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA · PPG 1.40

ZAMORA FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo La Guaira (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -27.4%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +10.5%

Zamora FC (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo La Guaira face Zamora FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo La Guaira a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Zamora FC 23%, so Deportivo La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.6 for Zamora FC (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo La Guaira are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Zamora FC.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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