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Sol de América vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:00

Sol de América

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bartolomé Mitre

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-110.0%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.2%1-111.1%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-16.1%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.5%3-12.3%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 32.1% — — —

Away win 21.5% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0 22.2%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sol de América1.1

Bartolomé Mitre0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE AMÉRICA · PPG 2.44

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sol de América (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bartolomé Mitre (A) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sol de América face Bartolomé Mitre in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sol de América a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Bartolomé Mitre 22%, so Sol de América are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sol de América and 0.5 for Bartolomé Mitre (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sol de América are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.89 for Bartolomé Mitre.

Sol de América vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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