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San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:00

San Martin Tucuman

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-110.9%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-112.9%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-17.7%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 54.6% 1.83 -15.8%

Draw 28.9% 34.5% 2.90 -9.7%

Away win 25.1% 21.1% 4.75 +11.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 33.3% 3.00 +28.1%

Over 3.5 21.1% 15.4% 6.50 +22.3%

BTTS 47.7% 39.2% 2.55 +21.6%

Home O1.5 31.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.3%

Away O1.5 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 235 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 1–0 16.6%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Tucuman1.2

Deportivo Madryn0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN · PPG 1.50

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 1.97 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Tucuman (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.8%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.7%

Deportivo Madryn (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Tucuman face Deportivo Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Tucuman a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo Madryn 25%, so San Martin Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.8 for Deportivo Madryn (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Tucuman are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.42 for Deportivo Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +46.9%.

San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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