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Racing Cordoba vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:00

Racing Cordoba

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Martin S.J.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+18.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-18.6%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-112.4%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-18.9%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Draw 27.0% 36.4% 2.75 -15.4%

Away win 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 33.3% 3.00 +49.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 14.3% 7.00 +60.5%

BTTS 51.7% 43.5% 2.30 +18.9%

Home O1.5 45.1% 35.1% 2.85 +28.5%

Away O1.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 235 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.7%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Cordoba1.4

San Martin S.J.0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CORDOBA · PPG 2.00

SAN MARTIN S.J. · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Racing Cordoba (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.2%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.4%

San Martin S.J. (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Cordoba face San Martin S.J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Cordoba a 49% chance, the draw 27% and San Martin S.J. 24%, so Racing Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Racing Cordoba and 0.8 for San Martin S.J. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Cordoba are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for San Martin S.J.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.5%.

Racing Cordoba vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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