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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 2.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chaco For Ever

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+20.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.8%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-18.4%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.0%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-16.5%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 63.7% 1.57 -10.5%

Draw 21.4% 29.9% 3.35 -17.0%

Away win 21.6% 16.1% 6.20 +20.3%

Over 2.5 59.0% 42.6% 2.35 +38.6%

Over 3.5 35.5% 23.1% 4.33 +53.7%

BTTS 53.1% 44.4% 2.25 +19.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 52.4% 1.91 +20.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 18.2% 5.50 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 235 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 3–0 9.7%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy2.2

Chaco For Ever0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 2.42

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 2.42 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -10.5%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -17.0%

Chaco For Ever (A) 21.6%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Chaco For Ever in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Chaco For Ever 22%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.7 for Chaco For Ever (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 2.42 points per game versus 0.75 for Chaco For Ever. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.7%.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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