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Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.2%0-111.2%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.9%1-19.3%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.3%2-13.8%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.8%3-11.0%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 46.5% 2.15 -6.5%

Draw 35.1% 37.7% 2.65 -7.0%

Away win 21.4% 25.3% 3.95 -9.3%

Over 2.5 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Over 3.5 11.4% 11.1% 9.00 +1.6%

BTTS 31.7% 39.2% 2.55 -19.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 20.0% 5.00 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 235 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.7%

H 44% / xG 0.8-0.4 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.2%

#2 1–0 24.9%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez0.8

Almirante Brown0.4

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.82

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 1.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.5%

Draw 35.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -7.0%

Almirante Brown (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 44% chance, the draw 35% and Almirante Brown 21%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Tristan Suarez and 0.4 for Almirante Brown (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Almirante Brown. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%.

Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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