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Central Norte vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:00

Central Norte

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-114.1%0-25.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.8%2-16.1%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% — — —

Draw 33.8% — — —

Away win 30.0% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 18.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 235 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.6%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.2%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Norte0.9

Gimnasia Y Tiro0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 1.40

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 1.71 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Norte (H) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gimnasia Y Tiro (A) 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Norte face Gimnasia Y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Norte a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 30%, so Central Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Central Norte and 0.8 for Gimnasia Y Tiro (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Norte are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.27 for Gimnasia Y Tiro.

Central Norte vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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