Today / Peru - Liga Women / UNSAAC W vs Alianza Lima W

UNSAAC W vs Alianza Lima W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:15

UNSAAC W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Lima W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-117.0%0-213.2%0-36.9%0-4+3.8%1 1-07.2%1-111.2%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.4%2-13.7%2-22.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.2% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 56.0% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob47.7%

A 56% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.0%

#2 0–2 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSAAC W0.7

Alianza Lima W1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSAAC W · PPG 1.00

ALIANZA LIMA W · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

UNSAAC W (H) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alianza Lima W (A) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSAAC W face Alianza Lima W in Peru - Liga Women on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSAAC W a 20% chance, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima W 56%, so Alianza Lima W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for UNSAAC W and 1.6 for Alianza Lima W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSAAC W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Alianza Lima W.

UNSAAC W vs Alianza Lima W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Liga Women Predictions