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San Martín Mendoza vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:00

San Martín Mendoza

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Rincon

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-19.1%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-112.2%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-18.2%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 49.5% 2.02 -1.4%

Draw 27.2% 34.4% 2.91 -12.5%

Away win 24.0% 27.5% 3.64 -7.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 39.1% 2.56 +17.5%

Over 3.5 26.0% 19.8% 5.05 +18.8%

BTTS 47.7% 45.9% 2.18 +4.0%

Home O1.5 37.9% 39.4% 2.54 -3.7%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.8% 4.20 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín Mendoza1.3

Deportivo Rincon0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA · PPG 2.00

DEPORTIVO RINCON · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Martín Mendoza (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -1.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.91 · IMPLIED 34.4% EV -12.5%

Deportivo Rincon (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.64 · IMPLIED 27.5% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín Mendoza face Deportivo Rincon in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín Mendoza a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Rincon 24%, so San Martín Mendoza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Martín Mendoza and 0.7 for Deportivo Rincon (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín Mendoza are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Rincon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%.

San Martín Mendoza vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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