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Gama vs America-RN Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Gama

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

America-RN

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-113.3%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.1%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.6%2-16.8%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 45.5% 2.20 -18.2%

Draw 29.9% 34.7% 2.88 -8.3%

Away win 32.9% 31.3% 3.20 +5.3%

Over 2.5 43.6% 38.2% 2.62 +14.2%

Over 3.5 23.0% 20.0% 5.00 +9.0%

BTTS 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

Home O1.5 35.0% 36.4% 2.75 -3.8%

Away O1.5 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 30% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gama1.0

America-RN0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GAMA · PPG 2.71

AMERICA-RN · PPG 2.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 1.90 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gama (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -18.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.3%

America-RN (A) 32.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gama face America-RN in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gama a 37% chance, the draw 30% and America-RN 33%, so Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gama and 0.9 for America-RN (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gama are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 2.43 for America-RN. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.1%.

Gama vs America-RN Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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