Today / Brazil - Serie D / ABC vs Luverdense

ABC vs Luverdense Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:00

ABC

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Luverdense

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-16.9%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.2%1-110.3%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-17.6%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.4%3-13.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-11.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 76.9% 1.30 -28.9%

Draw 26.3% 26.3% 3.80 -0.0%

Away win 19.0% 10.0% 10.00 +54.0%

Over 2.5 41.4% 42.6% 2.35 -2.7%

Over 3.5 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

BTTS 46.4% 33.3% 3.00 +39.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 57.8% 1.73 -19.9%

Away O1.5 19.1% 11.8% 8.50 +37.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.2%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 15.0%

#4 1–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ABC1.5

Luverdense0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ABC · PPG 2.14

LUVERDENSE · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ABC (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -28.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.0%

Luverdense (A) 19.0%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

ABC face Luverdense in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ABC a 55% chance, the draw 26% and Luverdense 19%, so ABC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for ABC and 0.5 for Luverdense (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ABC are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Luverdense. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +74.2%.

ABC vs Luverdense Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie D Predictions