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Goiatuba EC vs ASA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

Goiatuba EC

PPG 2.38 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

ASA

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-111.2%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-17.1%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 40.0% 2.50 +11.5%

Draw 32.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.8%

Away win 23.3% 33.3% 3.00 -18.1%

Over 2.5 36.3% 33.3% 3.00 +8.9%

Over 3.5 18.1% 16.7% 6.00 +5.2%

BTTS 45.5% 46.5% 2.15 -2.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 16.3%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goiatuba EC1.1

ASA0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIATUBA EC · PPG 2.38

ASA · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 1.81 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Goiatuba EC (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.5%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.8%

ASA (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goiatuba EC face ASA in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goiatuba EC a 45% chance, the draw 32% and ASA 23%, so Goiatuba EC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Goiatuba EC and 0.7 for ASA (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goiatuba EC are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.75 for ASA. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Goiatuba EC vs ASA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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