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Nacional AM vs ABC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Nacional AM

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

ABC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-113.8%0-25.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.9%2-16.3%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 42.0% 2.38 -5.5%

Draw 33.3% 38.5% 2.60 -13.4%

Away win 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Over 2.5 34.8% 38.2% 2.62 -8.8%

Over 3.5 18.1% 20.0% 5.00 -5.7%

BTTS 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

Away O1.5 20.4% 28.6% 3.50 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.5%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional AM1.0

ABC0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL AM · PPG 1.88

ABC · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nacional AM (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -5.5%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -13.4%

ABC (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional AM face ABC in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional AM a 40% chance, the draw 33% and ABC 27%, so Nacional AM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nacional AM and 0.8 for ABC (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional AM are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.00 for ABC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Nacional AM vs ABC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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