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Sao Jose vs Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Sao Jose

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gama

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-117.7%0-28.8%0-32.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.1%1-113.0%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.8%2-14.7%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 28.6% 3.50 +9.9%

Draw 33.6% 40.0% 2.50 -16.0%

Away win 34.9% 45.5% 2.20 -23.2%

Over 2.5 36.3% 36.4% 2.75 -0.2%

Over 3.5 18.1% 18.2% 5.50 -0.3%

BTTS 45.5% 43.5% 2.30 +4.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 22.2% 4.50 +44.5%

Away O1.5 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.5%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 0–1 17.7%

#3 1–1✓ 13.0%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Jose0.7

Gama1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO JOSE · PPG 1.88

GAMA · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sao Jose (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +9.9%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.0%

Gama (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Jose face Gama in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Jose a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Gama 35%, so Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sao Jose and 1.0 for Gama (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Jose are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.00 for Gama. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +44.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Sao Jose vs Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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