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Uberlandia vs CSA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Uberlandia

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

CSA

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.2%0-27.5%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.3%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.4%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 37.0% 2.70 -0.6%

Draw 27.4% 40.0% 2.50 -18.9%

Away win 35.8% 36.4% 2.75 -1.6%

Over 2.5 52.9% 42.6% 2.35 +24.3%

Over 3.5 30.1% 23.1% 4.33 +30.3%

BTTS 54.6% 48.8% 2.05 +11.9%

Home O1.5 33.5% 36.4% 2.75 -7.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 30.8% 3.25 +42.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uberlandia1.2

CSA1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UBERLANDIA · PPG 1.50

CSA · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Uberlandia (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.9%

CSA (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uberlandia face CSA in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uberlandia a 37% chance, the draw 27% and CSA 36%, so Uberlandia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Uberlandia and 1.5 for CSA (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uberlandia are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.75 for CSA. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +42.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Uberlandia vs CSA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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