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Linares Unido vs Provincial Osorno Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:00

Linares Unido

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Provincial Osorno

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-117.9%0-28.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.6%1-112.9%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-04.9%2-14.6%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.1%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 40.0% 2.50 -19.3%

Draw 32.9% 30.8% 3.25 +6.9%

Away win 34.7% 40.0% 2.50 -13.3%

Over 2.5 34.2% 51.8% 1.93 -34.0%

Over 3.5 17.7% 29.9% 3.35 -24.4%

BTTS 44.6% 58.8% 1.70 -24.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 42.6% 2.35 -29.0%

Away O1.5 26.2% 42.6% 2.35 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.6%

D 33% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.8%

#2 0–1 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 13.6%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linares Unido0.7

Provincial Osorno0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LINARES UNIDO · PPG 1.00

PROVINCIAL OSORNO · PPG 1.80

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 1.67 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Linares Unido (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.3%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.9%

Provincial Osorno (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linares Unido face Provincial Osorno in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linares Unido a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Provincial Osorno 35%, so Provincial Osorno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Linares Unido and 0.9 for Provincial Osorno (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linares Unido are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Provincial Osorno.

Linares Unido vs Provincial Osorno Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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