Today / Chile - Segunda División / Real San Joaquín vs Santiago Morning

Real San Joaquín vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Real San Joaquín

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santiago Morning

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.4%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.4%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 27.1% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real San Joaquín1.5

Santiago Morning1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SAN JOAQUÍN · PPG 0.67

SANTIAGO MORNING · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real San Joaquín (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santiago Morning (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real San Joaquín face Santiago Morning in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real San Joaquín a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Santiago Morning 27%, so Real San Joaquín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real San Joaquín and 1.1 for Santiago Morning (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real San Joaquín are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Santiago Morning.

Real San Joaquín vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Segunda División Predictions