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Lota Schwager vs General Velásquez Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Lota Schwager

PPG 0.83 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

General Velásquez

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-111.8%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.0%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.4%2-17.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.5%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Draw 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

Away win 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Over 2.5 36.5% 45.5% 2.20 -19.7%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

BTTS 48.4% 51.8% 1.93 -6.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 45.5% 2.20 -29.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 28.6% 3.50 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 17.0%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lota Schwager1.1

General Velásquez0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOTA SCHWAGER · PPG 0.83

GENERAL VELÁSQUEZ · PPG 0.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 1.87 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lota Schwager (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.8%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.1%

General Velásquez (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lota Schwager face General Velásquez in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lota Schwager a 44% chance, the draw 32% and General Velásquez 25%, so Lota Schwager are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lota Schwager and 0.8 for General Velásquez (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lota Schwager are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.86 for General Velásquez. This match finished 3-1.

Lota Schwager vs General Velásquez Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Segunda División Predictions