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Colchagua vs Santiago City Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:00

Colchagua

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Santiago City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-15.9%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.0%1-110.8%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 52.4% 1.91 +2.2%

Draw 23.7% 29.0% 3.45 -10.9%

Away win 22.8% 29.0% 3.45 -12.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 52.7% 52.6% 1.90 +0.1%

Away O1.5 29.5% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colchagua1.8

Santiago City1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLCHAGUA · PPG 1.83

SANTIAGO CITY · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colchagua (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.9%

Santiago City (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colchagua face Santiago City in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colchagua a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Santiago City 23%, so Colchagua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Colchagua and 1.0 for Santiago City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colchagua are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.33 for Santiago City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Colchagua vs Santiago City Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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