Today / Chile - Segunda División / Real San Joaquín vs Santiago Morning

Real San Joaquín vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00

Real San Joaquín

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santiago Morning

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-110.6%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-18.2%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 37.0% 2.70 +19.1%

Draw 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Away win 28.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.7%

Over 2.5 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Over 3.5 26.0% 23.1% 4.33 +7.5%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 34.6% 35.7% 2.80 -3.1%

Away O1.5 25.0% 37.7% 2.65 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real San Joaquín1.2

Santiago Morning0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SAN JOAQUÍN · PPG 0.67

SANTIAGO MORNING · PPG 0.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real San Joaquín (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +19.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Santiago Morning (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real San Joaquín face Santiago Morning in Chile - Segunda División on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real San Joaquín a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Santiago Morning 28%, so Real San Joaquín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real San Joaquín and 0.9 for Santiago Morning (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real San Joaquín are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Santiago Morning. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Real San Joaquín vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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