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Colina vs Deportes Rengo Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:30

Colina

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Deportes Rengo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.4%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.8%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Draw 24.8% 28.2% 3.55 -7.2%

Away win 21.4% 28.2% 3.55 -14.4%

Over 2.5 50.9% 55.6% 1.80 -8.4%

Over 3.5 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

Away O1.5 21.1% 35.1% 2.85 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colina1.6

Deportes Rengo0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLINA · PPG 1.17

DEPORTES RENGO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colina (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.2%

Deportes Rengo (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colina face Deportes Rengo in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colina a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Deportes Rengo 21%, so Colina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Colina and 0.9 for Deportes Rengo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colina are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Deportes Rengo. This match finished 0-1.

Colina vs Deportes Rengo Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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