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Trasandino vs Linares Unido Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 22:00

Trasandino

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Linares Unido

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.4%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.1%1-113.0%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.1%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 39.2% 2.55 +2.8%

Draw 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -6.4%

Away win 31.8% 39.2% 2.55 -18.9%

Over 2.5 50.3% 48.8% 2.05 +3.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 35.1% 39.2% 2.55 -10.5%

Away O1.5 35.4% 39.2% 2.55 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trasandino1.2

Linares Unido1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRASANDINO · PPG 1.86

LINARES UNIDO · PPG 2.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trasandino (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +2.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.4%

Linares Unido (A) 31.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trasandino face Linares Unido in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trasandino a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Linares Unido 32%, so Trasandino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Trasandino and 1.2 for Linares Unido (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trasandino are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 2.17 for Linares Unido. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Trasandino vs Linares Unido Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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